Thursday, May 28, 2009

Celcom vs DiGi Q1 2009

Last week, Celcom announced its first quarter performance to the local media. Not surprisingly, the company posted its 12th consecutive quarterly growth.

Overall, Celcom appears to have the edge over rivals DiGi and is positioning itself as a Strong Number 2 player.

First quarter results also has a few "highlights":
1. A record 183,000 new postpaid net adds.
2. Mobile subscribers exceeded 300,000 mark.

Ok. Let's look at how these two have performed.

REVENUE
Celcom: RM1.47 billion, up 0.3 per cent QoQ, up 9.7 per cent YoY.
DiGi: RM1.22 billion, down 1.1 per cent QoQ, up 4 per cent YoY.


SUBSCRIBER BASE
Celcom: 9.17 million, up 4.7 per cent (415,000) QoQ. Postpaid user rose 10.4 per cent to 1.94 million, while Prepaid user rose 3.3 per cent to 7.22 million.

DiGi: 7.15 million, up by 1.3 per cent (93,000) QoQ. Postpaid user rose 6 per cent to 1.16 million, while Prepaid user rose 0.5 per cent to 5.99 million.


ARPU (Average revenue per user)
Celcom: Postpaid ARPU at RM101, down from RM104 in fourth quarter. Prepaid ARPU at RM41, down by 8.7 per cent from RM45 in Q4 last year. Blended ARPU down by 5.4 per cent QoQ to RM54.

DiGi: Postpaid ARPU fell by 4.5 per cent to RM84 (from RM88 in fourth quarter 2008), Prepaid ARPU fell by 3.8 per cent to RM50 (RM52 in Q409) and Blended ARPU dropped by 3.4 per cent to RM56 (from RM58)


EBITDA/ EBITDA Margin
Celcom: RM664 million, flat growth. Ebitda margin fell to 45 per cent, from 45.1 per cent in fourth quarter 2008.

DiGi: RM544 million, grew by 1.4 per cent. Ebitda margin expanded to 44.6 per cent from 43.5 per cent.


NET PROFIT
Celcom: rose by 6.3 per cent QoQ to RM357 million.
DiGi: fell by 2.3 per cent QoQ to RM275 million.


Main concerns moving forward:

According to industry sources, about 15-30 per cent of DiGi's prepaid customer base are foreign workers. If it is true, this could impact DiGi's earnings for the remaining quarters as the slowing economy would translate into less jobs for these foreign workers. (less jobs= less phone calls made; less activities = more foreign workers to be sent home)

As for Celcom, key question now is, how it plans to attack the Central division. It reintroduced a new Xpax few weeks ago. Based on the rates they offer, they should give rival Maxis and DiGi a run for their money.

Tuesday, May 19, 2009

Q4 growth slowed down tremendously.

Ovum, the global analyst and consulting company, issued a press release recently on trends of the telecommunication service providers.

Following are the highlights of the report, entitled Review of 4Q-CY08 telco financials, which covers 130 service providers across four regions:

1. Revenue grew 1.8 per cent year-on-year in fourth quarter 2008 to US$377.b billion. Same quarter a year ago, revenue grew by 19 per cent.

2. However, growth in operating expenses for the same period was just 1.4 per cent, and capex dropped by 2.3 per cent.

3. The decline in capex has helped increase telcos' operating cash flowmargins to 14.3 per cent in 4Q2008, from 13.2 per cent in fourth quarter 2007. Average operating cash flow margin increased in every individual region except South and Central America.

For the full version of the press release, pls drop a comment.

Wednesday, May 13, 2009

TOP 100 Brands (update)

Tech companies, such as Google, Microsoft, IBM, Cisco and Dell, made up almost 30 per cent of the top 100 brands in the BrandZ ranking by Millward Brown Optimor. From the list, 14 brands are made up of telecommunications operator, mobile phone makers as well as telecommunications equipment manufacturers.

The brands are ranked by their dollar value. The combined value of the top 100 brands was$1.95 trillion.

Let me know if i missed out any main telecommunications players. Telco brands that didnt make it: Motorola, Samsung, LG, Sony Ericsson etc...

As for me, i am kinda surprised that Samsung didnt make it... afterall, it has made huge progress over the past few years, especially in the US.

Source of info: Millward Brown Optimor and Bloomberg.

update: have just corrected my spelling error. It's now Vodafone, not Vodaphone.
=========================================================== Brand Value (Bln)
Rank Company 2009 2008 Change %===========================================================
1 Google $100.039 $86.057 16%
2 Microsoft $76.249 $70.887 8%
3 Coca-Cola $67.625 $58.208 16%
4 IBM $66.622 $55.335 20%
5 McDonald’s $66.575 $49.499 34%
6 Apple $63.113 $55.206 14%
7 China Mobile $61.283 $57.225 7%
8 GE (General Electric) $59.793 $71.379 -16%
9 Vodafone $53.727 $36.962 45%=========================================================== Brand Value (Bln)
Rank Company 2009 2008 Change %===========================================================
10 Marlboro $49.460 $37.324 33%
11 Wal-Mart $41.083 $34.547 19%
12 ICBC $38.056 $28.004 36%
13 Nokia $35.163 $43.975 -20%
14 Toyota $29.907 $35.134 -15%
15 UPS $27.842 $30.492 -9%
16 BlackBerry $27.478 $13.734 100%
17 HP $26.745 $29.278 -9%
18 BMW $23.948 $28.015 -15%
19 SAP $23.615 $21.669 9%
20 Disney $23.110 $23.705 -3%
21 Tesco $22.938 $23.208 -1%
22 Gillette $22.919 $21.523 6%
23 Intel $22.851 $22.027 4%
24 China Construction Bank $22.811 $19.603 16%
25 Oracle $21.438 $22.904 -6%
26 Amazon $21.294 $11.511 85%=========================================================== Brand Value (Bln)
Rank Company 2009 2008 Change %===========================================================
27 Bank of China $21.192 $19.418 9%
28 AT&T $20.059 $12.030 67%
29 Louis Vuitton $19.395 $18.446 5%
30 HSBC $19.079 $18.479 3%
31 Pampers $18.945 n/a n/a
32 Nintendo $18.233 n/a n/a
33 Cisco $17.965 $24.101 -25%
34 Verizon Wireless $17.713 $19.202 -8%
35 Porsche $17.467 $21.718 -20%
36 Visa $16.353 n/a n/a
37 Wells Fargo $16.228 $24.739 -34%
38 Banco Santander $16.035 $14.549 10%
39 NTT DoCoMo $15.776 $15.048 5%
40 Mercedes $15.499 $18.044 -14%
41 Bank of America $15.480 $33.092 -53%
42 Dell $15.422 $15.288 1%
43 Accenture $15.076 $14.137 7%=========================================================== Brand Value (Bln)
Rank Company 2009 2008 Change %===========================================================
44 Pepsi $14.996 $15.404 -3%
45 L’Oreal $14.991 $16.459 -9%
46 American Express $14.963 $24.816 -40%
47 Carrefour $14.961 $15.057 -1%
48 Royal Bank of Canada $14.894 $18.995 -22%
49 Citi $14.608 $30.318 -52%
50 Honda $14.571 $16.649 -12%
51 Siemens $13.562 $14.665 -8%
52 Budweiser $13.292 $10.839 23%
53 Orange $13.242 $14.093 -6%
54 eBay $12.970 $11.200 16%
55 BBVA $12.549 $9.457 33%
56 Colgate $12.396 $10.576 17%
57 Target $12.254 $14.738 -17%
58 H&M $12.061 $11.182 8%
59 Nike $11.999 $12.499 -4%
60 Subway $10.997 $10.335 6%===========================================================
Brand Value (Bln)
Rank Company 2009 2008 Change %===========================================================
61 Toronto Dominion $10.991 n/a n/a
62 Telefonica Movistar $10.911 $8.117 34%
63 T-Mobile $10.864 $8.940 22%
64 Wrigley’s $10.841 n/a n/a
65 Auchan $10.586 $7.148 48%
66 Chase $10.582 $12.782 -17%
67 Nissan $10.206 $11.707 -13%
68 DHL $9.719 $8.150 19%
69 FedEx $9.491 $11.486 -17%
70 Home Depot $9.280 $15.378 -40%
71 MTS $9.189 $8.077 14%
72 Beeline $8.884 n/a n/a
73 Canon $8.779 $12.398 -29%
74 Aldi $8.638 $5.811 49%
75 Avon $8.631 $7.209 20%
76 Zara $8.609 $8.682 -1%
77 O2 $8.601 $6.309 36%=========================================================== Brand Value (Bln)
Rank Company 2009 2008 Change %===========================================================
78 Standard Chartered Bank $8.219 $6.855 20%
79 Red Bull $8.154 n/a n/a
80 China Merchants Bank $8.052 $3.000 168%
81 Yahoo! $7.927 $11.465 -31%
82 Hermes $7.862 $6.951 13%
83 J.P. Morgan $7.852 $9.762 -20%
84 Ariel $7.777 $8.437 -8%
85 Tide $7.512 $9.123 -18%
86 Gucci $7.468 $6.479 15%
87 MasterCard $7.427 $6.970 7%
88 Goldman Sachs $7.415 $11.944 -38%
89 Starbucks $7.260 $12.011 -40%
90 Barclays $6.992 $7.382 -5%
91 State Fram $6.922 $9.425 -27%
92 Morgan Stanley $6.765 $11.327 -40%
93 ING $6.743 $15.080 -55%
94 KFC $6.721 $6.100 10%=========================================================== Brand Value (Bln)
Rank Company 2009 2008 Change %===========================================================
95 Ikea $6.713 $8.507 -21%
96 Nivea $6.572 $5.294 24%
97 Esprit $6.571 $7.907 -17%
98 Bradesco $6.565 n/a n/a
99 TIM $6.409 $7.903 -19%
100 Lowe’s $6.394 n/a n/a===========================================================

Monday, May 4, 2009

DiGi.Com shares down after announcing lower Q1 net profit

SHARES of DiGi.Com Bhd took a beating on Monday, after it reported lower Q1 net profit.

As of mid-day, its shares fell by 30 sen (or 1.34 per cent) to RM22.00. So far, three research houses have downgraded their recommendations on DiGi, they are:

1. CIMB-GK: downgraded DiGi to Neutral
2. Maybank Investment: downgraded DiGi to Sell
3. CLSA: downgraded DiGi to underperform

Overall, 8 research houses still placed a Buy call on DiGi, while 12 recommended investors to Hold, and 7 recommended investors to Sell.

Source: Bloomberg

 

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